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Energy Summary for Oct. 8, 2019

2019-10-08 20:40 ET - Market Summary

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by Stockwatch Business Reporter

West Texas Intermediate crude for November delivery lost 12 cents to $52.63 on the New York Merc, while Brent for December lost 11 cents to $58.24 (all figures in this para U.S.). Western Canadian Select traded at a discount of $14.08 to WTI, down from a discount of $13.57. Natural gas for November lost one cent to $2.29. The TSX energy index lost 4.83 points to close at 124.11.

For the second day in a row, a small flicker of optimism could be seen in the pricing forecasts of analysts tracking the Canadian energy sector. Just one day after Citi analyst Prashant Rao wrote up his thoughts on the "improved outlook for Canadian integrated oil companies in 2020" (as per The Globe and Mail's paraphrasing of his report), this morning the energy analysts at Scotia Capital dubbed themselves "Bears in the Near Term, But Bulls for the Long Run." They did so in their quarterly commodity price report. Although the Scotia analysts see global oil markets being "significantly oversupplied" during the first half of 2020, they see a recovery "perhaps as early as H2/20 [the second half of 2020]," assuming a continued slowdown in U.S. output and the absence of additional OPEC production. Here in Canada, the analysts see AECO gas prices enjoying a particularly nice boost. They hiked their 2020 AECO forecast to about $1.75 from about $1.50, rising to around $2 in 2021, as a result of improving pipeline capacity.

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